Stock Market Contest, end of June
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OK, I said I wasn’t going to post any article this weekend, but here is a short one.
Back On April 15, we launched a Stock Market contest (click link to see insights from the participants) in which a team of Goliaths (personal finance bloggers) were matched up against a team of Davids (people who were not personal finance bloggers). At the end of May, the Dow stood at 8500.33 and had gained average 12.34 points during the course of the contest, making the Davids the favorites.
The market tried to tread water in June, however, closing the month down 53.33 points at 8447.00. Once again, we’ll project the Dow’s year end close, assuming a linear trend.
At the end of the day on April 14th (the 104th day of the year), the Dow was at 7920.18.
At the end of the day on June 30 (the 181st day of the day), the Dow was at 8500.33
This is a gain of 526.82, or 6.84 points per day. If we assume that the market will contain to gain at exactly the same rate throughout the rest of the year (yes, a ridiculous assumption), the Dow will be at 9185.58 at the end of the year.
How do our contestants stack up?
| Team | Player | Player’s Guess | Difference from projection |
| N/A | Projected year end Dow | 9185.58 | 0 |
| No Team | Kosmo @ The Casual Observer | 8999 | 186.58 |
| David | Peter Rabbit @ The Casual Observer | 9500 | 314.42 |
| David | Phil Ossifer @ The Casual Observer | 8500 | 685.58 |
| Goliath | Trevor @ Financial Nut | 8500 | 685.58 |
| David | Black Hole | 8492.48 | 693.10 |
| Goliath | Heidi @ Banker Girl | 8400 | 785.58 |
| Goliath | Lazy @ Lazy Man and Money | 8232 | 953.58 |
I also invited visitors to play along at home. Let’s see how they are doing.
| Player | Player’s Guess | Difference from projection |
| Hilary | 9500 | 314.42 |
| Karchy | 9777 | 591.42 |
| Jeff | 7800 | 1385.58 |
At this point, team David is still in the lead, but the fact that the Dow was down for the month of June has allowed team Goliath to get much closer. Check back next month for the next update.
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July 14th, 2009 @ 6:44 pm
Very cool. Thanks for the update. I’m in a nice win/win situation here. If the Dow doesn’t pick up as much steam this year, I win…
And if it does, I also win b/c my retirement goes up.
WIN WIN!
What do I want to gratify more? My pride or my wallet…
Trevor @ Financial Nut´s last blog ..Is Hyperinflation Looming in America’s Economic Future?
Total Comments by Trevor @ Financial Nut: 2